London: All started when China defied India’s repeated warning. India repeatedly ask China not to meddle in disputed Pak occupied Kashmir and start any project(CPEC) which has been the epicenter of India Pakistan enmity.
Since then lot has been said but now Chinese media has gone one step further . It now warns India almost everyday with war and dire consequences. Reminder after reminder of 1962 war has been given to India by communist media. Even some Chinese expert suggests that Beijing should send military in disputed POK to protect its interest.
But now the question remains, Can really China defeat India? Might be nightmarish for billions but I am pretty much sure this particular question has crossed almost everyone’s mind. Media houses may give China upper hand due to numbers but in reality it is not going to be a walk in the park for china.
In 1962 India lost war to China, a year which is like a red stain in independent India’s history but then one must not overlook 1967 when Chinese had the taste of defeat.
But before we discuss any further let’s have a look where these two countries stands in terms of military hardware and man power.
Both countries has nuclear weapons and their No first use Policy makes Nuclear war out of equation. Each has population over 1.3 bn so they are almost unconquerable. Still if China decides to attack India they have to attack in all fronts Land , air , sea, cyber, economic and diplomatic etc.
If China attacks though land
Chinese communist party has a army of 2.3 million regular soldiers and India has 1.3 million. Any defensive scenario, ratio goes to 1:3 in favor of defending side. In hilly areas this ratio becomes 1:5 to 1:7. If it is a kargil type terrain this becomes unbelievable 1:12.
So for China it will be bloody and possibly they will end up in retreat.
In 1962 China enjoyed 8:1 ratio as a attacking force against poorly equipped outnumbered Indian forces.
If China attacks though Air
When it comes to Air power , China has over 3000 military aircraft and India has over 1700 aircraft. Even though China has more in numbers but it all depends on pilots experiences and Aircraft’s technology. India has fought 4 wars with Pakistan and two of them (1965, 1971) were major air battles.
Indian pilots currently trains with world’s best pilots every year. Chinese pilots doesn’t have that opportunity. India’s Su-30 MKI, Mig- 29 and Upgraded Mirage 2000 are best fighters in the world and with French Rafale’s on its way equipped with Meteor BVRAAM missiles, there is no need to loose sleep at night thinking that Chinese JF -17 or J-20 can enter Indian airspace.
If China attacks though Sea
Again number is an ally of China with 490+ ships , China has massive advantage over India’s 295 + ships. But to launch a massive sea invasion China needs to block all 7 major ports of India . Blockade requires at least 5 to 6 carrier battle groups.
China barely manages one carrier battle group. Even though China operates over 60 submarines , 70 % of them are old and needs massive re modification for war.
On the other hand India may not have huge submarine force but it has sizable numbers of many submarine hunters and then it has back up of USA, Australia, Japan and Russian Navies.
If China attacks India Economically
China may be a bigger economy than India but it is a export driven economy. In case of war China will suffer immensely as they will be under sanctions from all corner of the world specially USA, Israel and Japan . China enjoys a trade deficit almost $80 bn with India (which means they export more in India than import from India), this will hamper first.
Indian navy is undisputed king in Indian Ocean region through which China’s 90 % trading ships passes through. China is dependent on foreign oil. Blockade of key straits will hurt China unimaginably , millions will be out of work in a matter of weeks. Chinese economy might crumble like house of cards.
If China chooses Cyber warfare.
Many might think how , when ? Its already happening as i am writing. Chinese and Indian hackers engages each other almost every day. Chinese hackers may have stolen some stuff from around the world. They have better rankings but it doesn’t really make them superior. Military installations are almost unbreakable.
And even if someone breaks in they can easily be traced. Indian hackers amongsts the best in the world , working for Top IT companies. Indian hackers operates from around the world. Besides India has the largest number of IT professionals working in India and abroad. So Yes, It won’t be pretty for China either.
If China attacks India diplomatically
Currently India has diplomatic mission almost in every country . It has a sizable number of heavy weight allies Specially Japan, USA, Russia, Israel etc. ASEAN countries are more close to India than China due to china’s aggressive Policies against its neighbors.
China on the other hand has full support of only handful of countries such as Pakistan and North Korea. They are more like vassal states. If China tries to create any diplomatic sandstorm ,they will lose face.
If China tries to shower India with ballistic missiles.
In case of war China may use huge number of missiles. Definite target will be New Delhi and other military installations in near by eastern sector.
India can activate about 30 airfields in case of war with China. To make them absolutely out of action China at least needs to launch over 1000 missiles. Do they have that kind of fire power?
Besides India has many air defense system in place such as Akash missile defense system, Prithvi , Barak-8 , Brahmos and then recently acquired S-400 etc. In retaliation it can launch Agni series missiles which covers all of China.
India is also currently developing Agni -6 which has range over 10000 Km+.
China has numbers but it lacks in experience and quality. One has to be Communist party’s member first . Once he/she becomes a member then the person is allowed become part of Chinese army.
Where as in India, all military personals are volunteers which means they are bound by constitution and National Flag. Massive difference in attitude.
A war between two nuclear armed super powers would be nasty, short and brutal. This would definitely rock the global economy. May very well be the end of communism in China.